Price–Cost Margins and Structural Change: Sub-Contracting within the Salmon Marketing Chain

Some recent studies have benefited from advances in time series econometrics in order to evaluate price transmission mechanisms along the marketing chain. Due to the length of time series, structural changes may affect the evaluation of price–cost margins. In the case of the fresh salmon trade between Norway and France, the gross margin between producers and retailers has changed in level between January 1988 and December 1999. This article accurately identifies the date of a structural change using a range of recent ADF testing procedures (Gregory–Hansen tests, forward and backward recursive tests), before looking for the causes of the change through a survey. Two major factors can be identified: the product form and the marketing channel. Interestingly, both the increasing level of processing and the development of supermarket chains have resulted in a new role for the intermediaries, shifting from mere commercial intermediation to sub‐contracting for the big retailers.     

Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets

The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003     

The impact of multiple structural changes on mortality predictions

Most mortality models proposed in recent literature rely on the standard ARIMA framework (in particular: a random walk with drift) to project mortality rates. As a result the projections are highly sensitive to the calibration period. We therefore analyse the impact of allowing for multiple structural changes on a large collection of mortality models. We find that this may lead to more robust projections for the period effect but that there is only a limited effect on the ranking of the models based on backtesting criteria, since there is often not yet sufficient statistical evidence for structural changes. However, there are cases for which we do find improvements in estimates and we therefore conclude that one should not exclude on beforehand that structural changes may have occurred.     

Predictive validity of ethnic identification measures: An illustration of the English/French classification dilemma in Canada

To establish the predictive validity of ethnic identification measures, respondents in the Montreal Urban Community were surveyed and measured on a variety of ethnic dimensions. The data was then fed to a clustering algorithm. Two-group clustering assignments were then compared to traditional taxonomic measures. It is shown that some measures do an excellent job in classifying respondents, while others, which are commonly used in practice, do not fare as well.     

The Impact of the 9/11 Events on the American and French Stock Markets

Markets reacted strongly to the World Trade Center attacks both in Europe and in the United States. The extent of this crisis was difficult to assess at the time, underlining the need for a specific tool to measure the magnitude of financial crises. A first measure was recently proposed and applied to the foreign exchange market by Zumbach et al. (2000a,b ). Their measure relies on an analogy with geophysics; the related index of market shocks (IMS) that we propose here is also the counterpart of the Richter scale used for earthquakes. We apply this measure on the French and the American stock markets to put large market events into perspective. The crisis triggered by the September attacks was actually the worst since 1987, and the ninth worst when compared to major historical ones.     

The Flemish customer contact centre for public information from a marketing and management perspective

This paper describes the Flemish customer contact centre for government information (‘the Flemish Infoline’) as an example of marketing in the public sector. First it defines the term ‘customer contact centre’ and describes the objectives and main characteristics of the Flemish Infoline. It then identifies the three reasons for setting up the Flemish Infoline in 1999: the complicated Belgian institutional landscape; the unprofessional telephone traffic handling and service; and the lack of knowledge about citizens' information needs. Finally, the paper applies Kotler's 4 Ps concept to the case, and puts the relevant stages from Lees‐Marsh‐ment's political marketing orientations into one integrated scheme in order to understand the functioning of the Flemish Infoline. Based on the literature and on an in‐depth interview with the project head of the Flemish Infoline, the authors demonstrate that marketing techniques can be used in contact centres for public information, but they also illustrate some important differences from those in the forprofit sector, such as the available amount of customers' personal data, the level of call operators' skills and the degree of heterogeneity of the questions. Further research on information needs and contact centres, and providing one ‘umbrella’ contact centre for government information in Belgium are recommended. Copyright © 2003 Henry Stewart Publications     

Improving lattice schemes through bias reduction

Lattice schemes for option pricing, such as tree or grid/partial differential equation (p.d.e.) methods, are usually designed as a discrete version of an underlying continuous model of stock prices. The parameters of such schemes are chosen so that the discrete version “best” matches the continuous one. Only in the limit does the lattice option price model converge to the continuous one. Otherwise, a discretization bias remains. A simple modification of lattice schemes which reduces the discretization bias is proposed. The modification can, in theory, be applied to any lattice scheme. The main idea is to adjust the lattice parameters in such a way that the option price bias, not the stock price bias, is minimized. European options are used, for which the option price bias can be evaluated precisely, as a template to modify and improve American option methods. A numerical study is provided. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:733–757, 2006     

IS THERE A FRENCH SCHOOL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS?

The particular history of French agriculture and the general intellectual environment in France have given the agricultural economics profession in that country a specific character which, in spite of many internal controversies, is illustrated by common beliefs about agriculture and common attitudes regarding research approaches contrasting with that of the profession in many other countries, including Britain. After the second world war, the development of agricultural economics was marked by the demise of ‘ruralism’, an ideology of agrarian fundamentalism, and its replacement by ‘productivism’, an ideology emphasizing economic growth and based on a simplified neo-classical paradigm. The surge of Marxism and dissatisfaction with the results of the policies advocated by the productivists led to a questioning of that paradigm. As a result, major hypotheses, theoretical issues, and concepts too often taken for granted in France and elsewhere should be re-examined.     

A computer assisted school bus routing strategy: A case study

The effect of routing changes on the efficiency of suburban-rural pupil transportation systems is demonstrated in a case study of a suburban-rural county in Virginia. A computer assisted routing method was used that included manual route design and computer aided route evaluation. Various policy options affecting routing were identified and new routes were developed. The recommended routes represented a 17% reduction in the number of routes required, a 19% reduction in the number of buses required, and a 57% reduction in the total number of vacant seats. While the computer assisted method used produced a more efficient routing structure, the process of manual route design was still slow and tedious. Techniques such as interactive computer graphics appear to be suited to the school bus routing problem and their use should be explored.